The 2018 BMW Championship will take place at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, this week, as the PGA Tour’s top 70 players compete in the third tournament of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Two-time champion Dustin Johnson enters the 2018 BMW Championship as the Vegas favorite at 9-1, followed closely by 2011 champion Justin Rose at 12-1. Justin Thomas (14-1), Brooks Koepka (14-1) and Bryson DeChambeau (16-1) round out the top five golfers with the best 2018 BMW Championship odds. Before you make any 2018 BMW Championship picks of enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on sites like FanDuel or DraftKings, you’ll want to see what the team at SportsLine has to say.
SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, was all over DeChambeau winning last week’s Dell Technologies Championship, projecting him as a top contender from the start. It has also nailed four of the last eight majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods‘ deep run in the PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. Anyone who has followed their model is up big.
Now that the 2018 BMW Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.
One huge surprise the model is calling for: Woods, the only player to win the FedEx Cup more than once, stumbles this week and finishes outside the top 10.
Woods is still searching for that elusive 80th career PGA Tour victory and his last win in the FedEx Cup Playoffs was at the 2009 BMW Championship. His appearance at this week’s BMW Championship will mean a fifth start in six weeks going back to the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. He has shown signs of wear, finishing 24th or worse in three of his past four starts.
Another surprise: Hideki Matsuyama, a massive 25-1 long shot, makes a serious run at the 2018 BMW Championship title.
Matsuyama enters the 2018 BMW Championship with three consecutive top-15 finishes on the PGA Tour. And he ranks in the top 30 on the PGA Tour in both scoring average (70.182) and birdie average (3.91), which should allow him to shoot a low score this week at Aronimink.
Also, the model says four additional golfers with 2018 BMW Championship odds of 20-1 or longer will make a strong run at title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.
So who wins the 2018 BMW Championship, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the updated odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the BMW Championship projected leaderboard from the model that has nailed four of the past eight majors heading into the weekend.
Dustin Johnson 9-1
Justin Rose 12-1
Justin Thomas 14-1
Brooks Koepka 14-1
Bryson DeChambeau 16-1
Jason Day 20-1
Rory McIlory 20-1
Tony Finau 20-1
Tiger Woods 22-1
Jordan Spieth 22-1
Rickie Fowler 22-1
Hideki Matsuyama 25-1
Francesco Molinari 28-1
Tommy Fleetwood 30-1
Adam Scott 33-1
Jon Rahm 33-1
Patrick Cantlay 35-1
Phil Mickelson 40-1