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How far will the top NBA draft prospects go in the tourney?

What are the odds the NCAA tournament breaks well for NBA fans hoping to see the best draft prospects?

Here’s how far each player in the lottery of our recent 2018 mock draft is projected to go, according to FiveThirtyEight, and the possible matchups in which prospects could square off.


1. Deandre Ayton | C | No. 4 Arizona (South)

How far will he go?

  • Second round: 85 percent

  • Sweet 16: 49 percent

  • Elite Eight: 13 percent

  • Final Four: 6 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:


3. Jaren Jackson Jr. | PF/C | No. 3 Michigan State (Midwest)

How far will he go?

  • Second round: 92 percent

  • Sweet 16: 75 percent

  • Elite Eight: 40 percent

  • Final Four: 25 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:


How far will he go?

  • Second round: 96 percent

  • Sweet 16: 81 percent

  • Elite Eight: 47 percent

  • Final Four: 29 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

  • Oklahoma (second round): PG Trae Young (No. 9)

  • Michigan State (Sweet 16): PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. (No. 3), SF/PF Miles Bridges (No. 11)

  • Syracuse (Sweet 16): SG Tyus Battle (No. 39)

  • Kansas (Elite Eight): PG Devonte’ Graham (No. 28), SG Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (No. 51)


5. Mohamed Bamba | C | No. 10 Duke (South)

How far will he go?

  • Second round: 60 percent

  • Sweet 16: 13 percent

  • Elite Eight: 5 percent

  • Final Four: 1 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

  • Cincinnati (second round): SF Jacob Evans (No. 24)

  • Miami (Sweet 16): SG Lonnie Walker IV (No. 13)

  • Kentucky (Elite Eight): PG/SG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (No. 14 overall), SF/PF Kevin Knox (No. 12), Hamidou Diallo (No. 45)

  • Creighton (Elite Eight): SG Khyri Thomas (No. 22)

  • Arizona (Elite Eight): C Deandre Ayton (No. 1), PG Rawle Alkins (No. 43), C Allonzo Trier (No. 75)


How far will he go?

  • Second round: 96 percent

  • Sweet 16: 81 percent

  • Elite Eight: 47 percent

  • Final Four: 29 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

  • Oklahoma (second round): PG Trae Young (No. 9)

  • Michigan State (Sweet 16): PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. (No. 3), SF/PF Miles Bridges (No. 11)

  • Syracuse (Sweet 16): SG Tyus Battle (No. 39)

  • Kansas (Elite Eight): PG Devonte’ Graham (No. 28), SG Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (No. 51)


How far will he go?

  • Second round: 39 percent

  • Sweet 16: 9 percent

  • Elite Eight: 3 percent

  • Final Four: 0.8 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:


8. Collin Sexton | PG | No. 9 Alabama (East)

How far will he go?

  • Second round: 41 percent

  • Sweet 16: 5 percent

  • Elite Eight: 2 percent

  • Final Four: 0.6 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:


9. Trae Young | PG | No. 10 Oklahoma (Midwest)

How far will he go?

  • Second round: 42 percent

  • Sweet 16: 7 percent

  • Elite Eight: 2 percent

  • Final Four: 0.7 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

  • Duke (second round): PF/C Marvin Bagley III (No. 4), C Wendell Carter Jr. (No. 6), SG Grayson Allen (No. 30), PG Trevon Duval (No. 48)

  • Michigan State (Sweet 16): PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. (No. 3), SF/PF Miles Bridges (No. 11)

  • Syracuse (Sweet 16): SG Tyus Battle (No. 39)

  • Kansas (Elite Eight): PG Devonte’ Graham (No. 28), SG Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (No. 51)


10. Mikal Bridges | SF | No. 1 Villanova (East)

How far will he go?

  • Second round: 99 percent

  • Sweet 16: 86 percent

  • Elite Eight: 67 percent

  • Final Four: 50 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

  • Alabama (second round): PG Collin Sexton (No. 8)

  • West Virginia (Sweet 16): SG/SF Jevon Carter (No. 50)

  • Wichita State (Sweet 16): SF Landry Shamet (No. 31)

  • Florida (Elite Eight): SF Jalen Hudson (No. 41)

  • UCLA (Elite Eight): PG Aaron Holiday (No. 18)

  • Arkansas (Elite Eight): PF/C Daniel Gafford (No. 16)

  • Purdue (Elite Eight): PG Vincent Edwards (No. 59)


11. Miles Bridges | SF/PF | No. 3 Michigan State (Midwest)

How far will he go?

  • Second round: 92 percent

  • Sweet 16: 75 percent

  • Elite Eight: 40 percent

  • Final Four: 25 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

  • Syracuse (second round): SG Tyus Battle (No. 39)

  • Oklahoma (Sweet 16): PG Trae Young (No. 9)

  • Duke (Sweet 16): PF/C Marvin Bagley III (No. 4), C Wendell Carter Jr. (No. 6), SG Grayson Allen (No. 30), PG Trevon Duval (No. 48)

  • Kansas (Elite Eight): PG Devonte’ Graham (No. 28), SG Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (No. 51)


How far will he go?

  • Second round: 60 percent

  • Sweet 16: 25 percent

  • Elite Eight: 8 percent

  • Final Four: 2 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

  • Texas (Sweet 16): C Mohamed Bamba (No. 5)

  • Cincinnati (Sweet 16): SF Jacob Evans (No. 24)

  • Kentucky (Elite Eight): PG/SG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (No. 14 overall), SF/PF Kevin Knox (No. 12), Hamidou Diallo (No. 45)

  • Creighton (Elite Eight): SG Khyri Thomas (No. 22)

  • Arizona (Elite Eight): C Deandre Ayton (No. 1), PG Rawle Alkins (No. 43), C Allonzo Trier (No. 75)


How far will he go?

  • Second round: 76 percent

  • Sweet 16: 40 percent

  • Elite Eight: 13 percent

  • Final Four: 7 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

  • Arizona (Elite Eight): C Deandre Ayton (No. 1), PG Rawle Alkins (No. 43), C Allonzo Trier (No. 75)

  • Creighton (Sweet 16): SG Khyri Thomas (No. 22)

  • Texas (Elite Eight): C Mohamed Bamba (No. 5)

  • Miami (Elite Eight): SG Lonnie Walker IV (No. 13)

  • Cincinnati (Elite Eight): SF Jacob Evans (No. 24)


14. Robert Williams | PF/C | No. 7 Texas A&M (West)

How far will he go?

  • Second round: 58 percent

  • Sweet 16: 13 percent

  • Elite Eight: 5 percent

  • Final Four: 2 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

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