Bryce Harper delights home crowd with Home Run Derby win

The ball cleared the center field wall, and the sellout crowd roared. Bryce Harper threw his bat in the air, thrust both index fingers skyward and yelled with delight as a shower of streamers rained upon the crowd of 43,698. It could have been a scene from a playoff game. That it was merely the All-Star Home Run Derby mattered not to Harper or the Washington Nationals fans, who were thrilled to see their hometown hero deliver the night’s final longball Monday. In the midst of it all — and in the middle of trying season — Harper grabbed the microphone and

The Open 2018: Golf to introduce blood testing as part of WADA regulations

Players have previously only been subjected to urine tests but a condition of golf’s inclusion in the Olympics was that the sport would need to meet testing standards deployed across other WADA-regulated sports. About 20 per cent of the field will be subject to testing which has already been introduced on the European Tour. “I’ve done it a few times,” said Europe’s No1 Tommy Fleetwood. “I’m pretty confident that it’s a clean sport but we’re an Olympic sport these days so rules apply to everybody. “If everybody’s doing the right things, then it shouldn’t be a problem. I don’t see

Rory McIlroy confident his firepower can boost him to victory at The Open

The toughest course on the rota has claimed many a victim down the years but McIlroy, one of the longest hitters in the game, feels he has the ammunition to put it in its place. “My record at the Open has been pretty good over the last few years and I don’t see any reason why I can’t continue that good run this week,” said McIlroy, who practised with Spain’s Jon Rahm yesterday. “With the way the rough is, someone like Jon and I can fly it over 320 yards – you’re basically taking all the trouble out of play

Jordan Spieth reveals Claret Jug sadness ahead of The Open

Spieth reluctantly took part in a setpiece handover of the Open trophy on the first tee at Carnoustie to R and A chief executive Martin Slumbers and afterwards owned up to a surprising sense of emptiness. “I thought maybe somebody would meet me in the parking lot and I’d just give them the case back and we’d move on. But it was a ceremony, and because of that, it actually hit me harder,” he said. “I was thinking: ‘Man, this was in my possession. I took it to all the places that allowed me to get to where I am

Danny Willett: Former Masters champion opens up on his fall from grace ahead of The Open

He is able to do so with complete honesty because, finally, the wheel has begun to turn but if you ever wondered what happened to that twitchy Yorkshireman who won the Masters then here it is in unflinching detail. Willett’s fall from Augusta hero two years ago to a missed cut and withdrawal specialist was widely (mis) interpreted as a classic case of golfing Icarus, a player who flew too close to the sun and could not handle what went with becoming a Major champion. The truth was that at 28 he was only on the course at all with

Sources: LeBron to miss Team USA minicamp

6:02 PM ET LeBron James will not participate in USA Basketball’s minicamp in Las Vegas next week, multiple sources familiar with James’ plans told ESPN. James, a two-time Olympic gold medalist, was in Vegas over the weekend to observe his new team, the Los Angeles Lakers, play a summer league game, but he will not be present for the training camp, which is slated for July 25-27 at UNLV’s Mendenhall Center. It will be the first official USA Basketball gathering with Gregg Popovich as the head coach. James played for Larry Brown on the 2004 bronze medal team at the

The Open 2018: Rory McIlroy confident his firepower can boost him to victory at Carnoustie

The toughest course on the rota has claimed many a victim down the years but McIlroy, one of the longest hitters in the game, feels he has the ammunition to put it in its place. “My record at the Open has been pretty good over the last few years and I don’t see any reason why I can’t continue that good run this week,” said McIlroy, who practised with Spain’s Jon Rahm yesterday. “With the way the rough is, someone like Jon and I can fly it over 320 yards – you’re basically taking all the trouble out of play

British Open viewer’s guide: tee times, TV schedule and streaming options

The 147th British Open begins on Thursday at Carnoustie, and tee times for the opening round are from 1:35 a.m. ET to 11:16 a.m. ET. Tiger Woods, making his first British Open start in three years, tees off at 10:21 a.m. alongside Hideki Matsuyama and Russell Knox, and that group goes off at 5:20 a.m. on Friday. The TV broadcast begins at 1:30 a.m. on Thursday on the Golf Channel and continues until 4 p.m. Weekend coverage is also on NBC. Below is the TV schedule, streaming options and tee times for the week. TV SCHEDULE (ET) Thursday: 1:30 a.m.-4

Scherzer gets nod to start MLB all-star game in home park

Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper will bat sixth for the National League in the all-star game in his home ballpark on Tuesday night in Washington (7:30 p.m. ET). Harper is hitting .214 with a .365 on-base percentage, .468 slugging percentage, 23 home runs and 54 runs batted in. Despite his hitting struggles, Harper is an all-star — voted in by fans — for the sixth time in his seven-year major league career. Nationals teammate Max Scherzer will take the mound for the NL as expected with Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts saying it’s good for baseball and for the country

LaVar’s latest boast: In prime, I’d beat LeBron

1:31 PM ET LaVar Ball made headlines last year when he said that he could have beaten Michael Jordan one-on-one back in his playing days. Now the braggadocious basketball dad is making the same claim about his son’s new teammate: LeBron James. In a recent interview with Fanatics View, Ball said he would have been able to beat James because the four-time NBA MVP is “too weak.” “ too weak,” Ball, 50, said during the interview, which was published last Thursday. “Back in my heyday, can’t nobody hold me. 270 (pounds), benching 500? All I gotta do is back

Pelton mail: Does NBA favor shooters over LeBron-style drivers?

This week’s mailbag features your questions on shooting differentials from last season, Toronto’s achievement level, and more.

You can tweet your questions using the hashtag #peltonmailbag or email them to

“Are NBA referees protecting shooters more than drivers?”

— LeBron J., Cleveland

OK, LeBron James didn’t actually ask this question. In fact, it was more of a declaration after last Sunday’s home loss to the San Antonio Spurs.

“We’re at a point now where we protect the shooter more than the driver,” James said. “There’s no reason I should be going to the line four times in a game when I drive 100 times to the paint and I’m getting hit and slapped and grabbed and whatever and whatnot. We protect the shooter. That’s what it’s turned into. ‘Chicks dig the long ball,’ and that’s what it’s about.”

Let’s take a look at LeBron’s contention using Second Spectrum data. I calculated the rate of shooting fouls to all attempts to shoot — including shooting fouls, which aren’t technically shot attempts — both inside the restricted area (where most shots of drives come) and beyond the 3-point line (excluding heaves). Naturally, shooting fouls are far more common in the restricted area, but I really wanted to compare how the two rates have changed over the five years for which we have complete tracking data:

As you might suspect, the rate at which players are fouled on attempts from 3-point range increased dramatically from 2015-16 to 2016-17 — 27.5 percent higher last season, a change my former colleague Tom Haberstroh wrote about during the NBA Finals. It has gone back down a little this season, presumably because the NBA made one of its points of education the difference in definition of when a player is in the act of shooting on a jumper as opposed to a shot off a drive.

At the same time, after declining slightly in recent seasons, the foul rate on attempts in the restricted area in 2017-18 is actually the highest it has been during the camera-tracking era. The kicker is that James’ own rate of fouls on attempts in the restricted area (19.5 percent) is the second highest in this span. So while it’s certainly possible that James is also getting hit much more often on shots around the rim, the evidence suggests his complaint was more frustration than legitimate problem.

Speaking of Cleveland, I’m not sure I would say that opponents are displaying ridiculous shot-making against the Cavaliers. Second Spectrum tracks shot difficulty using the quantified shot quality (qSQ) metric, and Cleveland’s defense ranks dead last in the league there at 52.7 percent — the effective field goal percentage (eFG) we’d expect opponents to make given the location of those shots, their type and nearby defenders.

Now, opponents are in fact shooting a better eFG against the Cavaliers (53.9 percent), so there does appear to be some good shot-making against them. But 10 teams have a larger discrepancy between their qSQ and eFG, a metric Second Spectrum calls qSI (quantified shooter impact).

Looking specifically at contested shots using Second Spectrum data on NBA Advanced Stats doesn’t reveal much more in the way of ridiculous shooting against heavily contested shots. On attempts for which the closest defender is between two to four feet (called “tight” contests), opponents are making 27.0 percent of their 3-pointers against Cleveland, the league’s sixth-lowest mark. The Cavaliers’ bigger problem is that they’re giving up a league-high 17.3 3-point attempts per game with no defender closer than six feet (called “wide open”).

“Why was RPM’s projection for the Toronto Raptors so wrong? Did RPM just love P.J. Tucker, Patrick Patterson and Cory Joseph so much? (Because I do too.) Is it because it didn’t predict the growth of the bench?”

— Norm

The projection by ESPN’s real plus-minus (RPM) that Toronto would win an average of between 44 and 45 wins this season, the sixth-best projection in the Eastern Conference, has been a source of much discussion recently in Raptors Twitter. As is typically the case when a projection is so far off, I think there are several factors at play.

You’ve identified a couple of big ones relating to the bench. While Joseph and Tucker didn’t rate appreciably better by RPM than their replacements, Patterson’s loss looked like a huge hit to the Toronto bench. In 2016-17, the Raptors were about a break-even team with Patterson on the bench (plus-0.9 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats) — and that was actually an improvement on getting outscored with Patterson sitting during 2015-16.

Patterson and Kyle Lowry got most of the credit in RPM for the success of Toronto’s highly effective bench lineups the past couple of seasons, so the Raptors’ revamped second unit projected as average at best. Instead, with Pascal Siakam developing into a capable replacement for Patterson, and Fred VanVleet emerging as the new plus-minus standout, Toronto’s second unit has been better than ever despite that Lowry has played fewer minutes with this group.

Also interesting is the improvement of the Raptors’ starting five. Their most common four-man lineup last season (Lowry, DeMarre Carroll, DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas) outscored opponents by just 1.7 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats. This season, with rookie OG Anunoby in place of Carroll, and Ibaka solidifying the power forward spot, Toronto’s starting five has a robust plus-12.1 net rating.

For all the talk of the Raptors’ offensive changes, that improvement has come largely at the defensive end. Toronto’s starting five has a 100.7 defensive rating, better than the Boston Celtics‘ league-leading mark this season (101.1). Anunoby, projected to play limited minutes before the season, has been a big factor in that defensive success.

The other question here is why the Raptors have continually outperformed their RPM projections. As I noted over the summer, Toronto has beaten them by an average of six wins over the past four seasons, which will only go up this year. I suspect part of what’s happening is that the multiyear version of RPM used to build projections incorporates playoff performance, and naturally, the Raptors haven’t been as effective there. We’ll see whether their overperformance can carry over to the postseason this season.

Here they are, minimum 100 attempts both seasons.

And, for comparison’s sake, the players with the biggest declines this season:

To state the obvious, these lists are heavily governed by regression to the mean. Every player on the second list shot better in 2016-17 than every player on the first list, in most cases, dramatically so. As a result, odds are both lists overstate the magnitude of any actual change in players’ shooting ability.

That said, it’s encouraging to see second-year lottery picks Brandon Ingram and Dragan Bender making strides as 3-point shooters after disappointing in that regard as rookies. Improved 3-point shooting is also a big part of Kelly Oubre Jr.’s development, and Trey Lyles has gotten back to the kind of 3-point shooting we saw from him as a rookie.

On the other side, the Wizards expected they’d get capable 3-point shooting out of Meeks, a career 37.3 percent shooter entering this season. Instead, he has made 3s at a career-low rate, a tough break for a team whose depth is limited by luxury-tax concerns.


About The Author


Get more stuff like this
in your inbox

Subscribe to our mailing list and get interesting stuff and updates to your email inbox.